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No, the British did not steal $45 trillion from India

This is an updated copy of the version on BadHistory. I plan to update it in accordance with the feedback I got.
I'd like to thank two people who will remain anonymous for helping me greatly with this post (you know who you are)
Three years ago a festschrift for Binay Bhushan Chaudhuri was published by Shubhra Chakrabarti, a history teacher at the University of Delhi and Utsa Patnaik, a Marxist economist who taught at JNU until 2010.
One of the essays in the festschirt by Utsa Patnaik was an attempt to quantify the "drain" undergone by India during British Rule. Her conclusion? Britain robbed India of $45 trillion (or £9.2 trillion) during their 200 or so years of rule. This figure was immensely popular, and got republished in several major news outlets (here, here, here, here (they get the number wrong) and more recently here), got a mention from the Minister of External Affairs & returns 29,100 results on Google. There's also plenty of references to it here on Reddit.
Patnaik is not the first to calculate such a figure. Angus Maddison thought it was £100 million, Simon Digby said £1 billion, Javier Estaban said £40 million see Roy (2019). The huge range of figures should set off some alarm bells.
So how did Patnaik calculate this (shockingly large) figure? Well, even though I don't have access to the festschrift, she conveniently has written an article detailing her methodology here. Let's have a look.
How exactly did the British manage to diddle us and drain our wealth’ ? was the question that Basudev Chatterjee (later editor of a volume in the Towards Freedom project) had posed to me 50 years ago when we were fellow-students abroad.
This is begging the question.
After decades of research I find that using India’s commodity export surplus as the measure and applying an interest rate of 5%, the total drain from 1765 to 1938, compounded up to 2016, comes to £9.2 trillion; since $4.86 exchanged for £1 those days, this sum equals about $45 trillion.
This is completely meaningless. To understand why it's meaningless consider India's annual coconut exports. These are almost certainly a surplus but the surplus in trade is countered by the other country buying the product (indeed, by definition, trade surpluses contribute to the GDP of a nation which hardly plays into intuitive conceptualisations of drain).
Furthermore, Dewey (2019) critiques the 5% interest rate.
She [Patnaik] consistently adopts statistical assumptions (such as compound interest at a rate of 5% per annum over centuries) that exaggerate the magnitude of the drain
Moving on:
The exact mechanism of drain, or transfers from India to Britain was quite simple.
Convenient.
Drain theory possessed the political merit of being easily grasped by a nation of peasants. [...] No other idea could arouse people than the thought that they were being taxed so that others in far off lands might live in comfort. [...] It was, therefore, inevitable that the drain theory became the main staple of nationalist political agitation during the Gandhian era.
- Chandra et al. (1989)
The key factor was Britain’s control over our taxation revenues combined with control over India’s financial gold and forex earnings from its booming commodity export surplus with the world. Simply put, Britain used locally raised rupee tax revenues to pay for its net import of goods, a highly abnormal use of budgetary funds not seen in any sovereign country.
The issue with figures like these is they all make certain methodological assumptions that are impossible to prove. From Roy in Frankema et al. (2019):
the "drain theory" of Indian poverty cannot be tested with evidence, for several reasons. First, it rests on the counterfactual that any money saved on account of factor payments abroad would translate into domestic investment, which can never be proved. Second, it rests on "the primitive notion that all payments to foreigners are "drain"", that is, on the assumption that these payments did not contribute to domestic national income to the equivalent extent (Kumar 1985, 384; see also Chaudhuri 1968). Again, this cannot be tested. [...] Fourth, while British officers serving India did receive salaries that were many times that of the average income in India, a paper using cross-country data shows that colonies with better paid officers were governed better (Jones 2013).
Indeed, drain theory rests on some very weak foundations. This, in of itself, should be enough to dismiss any of the other figures that get thrown out. Nonetheless, I felt it would be a useful exercise to continue exploring Patnaik's take on drain theory.
The East India Company from 1765 onwards allocated every year up to one-third of Indian budgetary revenues net of collection costs, to buy a large volume of goods for direct import into Britain, far in excess of that country’s own needs.
So what's going on here? Well Roy (2019) explains it better:
Colonial India ran an export surplus, which, together with foreign investment, was used to pay for services purchased from Britain. These payments included interest on public debt, salaries, and pensions paid to government offcers who had come from Britain, salaries of managers and engineers, guaranteed profts paid to railway companies, and repatriated business profts. How do we know that any of these payments involved paying too much? The answer is we do not.
So what was really happening is the government was paying its workers for services (as well as guaranteeing profits - to promote investment - something the GoI does today Dalal (2019), and promoting business in India), and those workers were remitting some of that money to Britain. This is hardly a drain (unless, of course, Indian diaspora around the world today are "draining" it). In some cases, the remittances would take the form of goods (as described) see Chaudhuri (1983):
It is obvious that these debit items were financed through the export surplus on merchandise account, and later, when railway construction started on a large scale in India, through capital import. Until 1833 the East India Company followed a cumbersome method in remitting the annual home charges. This was to purchase export commodities in India out of revenue, which were then shipped to London and the proceeds from their sale handed over to the home treasury.
While Roy's earlier point argues better paid officers governed better, it is honestly impossible to say what part of the repatriated export surplus was a drain, and what was not. However calling all of it a drain is definitely misguided.
It's worth noting that Patnaik seems to make no attempt to quantify the benefits of the Raj either, Dewey (2019)'s 2nd criticism:
she [Patnaik] consistently ignores research that would tend to cut the economic impact of the drain down to size, such as the work on the sources of investment during the industrial revolution (which shows that industrialisation was financed by the ploughed-back profits of industrialists) or the costs of empire school (which stresses the high price of imperial defence)

Since tropical goods were highly prized in other cold temperate countries which could never produce them, in effect these free goods represented international purchasing power for Britain which kept a part for its own use and re-exported the balance to other countries in Europe and North America against import of food grains, iron and other goods in which it was deficient.
Re-exports necessarily adds value to goods when the goods are processed and when the goods are transported. The country with the largest navy at the time would presumably be in very good stead to do the latter.
The British historians Phyllis Deane and WA Cole presented an incorrect estimate of Britain’s 18th-19th century trade volume, by leaving out re-exports completely. I found that by 1800 Britain’s total trade was 62% higher than their estimate, on applying the correct definition of trade including re-exports, that is used by the United Nations and by all other international organisations.
While interesting, and certainly expected for such an old book, re-exporting necessarily adds value to goods.
When the Crown took over from the Company, from 1861 a clever system was developed under which all of India’s financial gold and forex earnings from its fast-rising commodity export surplus with the world, was intercepted and appropriated by Britain. As before up to a third of India’s rising budgetary revenues was not spent domestically but was set aside as ‘expenditure abroad’.
So, what does this mean? Britain appropriated all of India's earnings, and then spent a third of it aboard? Not exactly. She is describing home charges see Roy (2019) again:
Some of the expenditures on defense and administration were made in sterling and went out of the country. This payment by the government was known as the Home Charges. For example, interest payment on loans raised to finance construction of railways and irrigation works, pensions paid to retired officers, and purchase of stores, were payments in sterling. [...] almost all money that the government paid abroad corresponded to the purchase of a service from abroad. [...] The balance of payments system that emerged after 1800 was based on standard business principles. India bought something and paid for it. State revenues were used to pay for wages of people hired abroad, pay for interest on loans raised abroad, and repatriation of profits on foreign investments coming into India. These were legitimate market transactions.
Indeed, if paying for what you buy is drain, then several billions of us are drained every day.
The Secretary of State for India in Council, based in London, invited foreign importers to deposit with him the payment (in gold, sterling and their own currencies) for their net imports from India, and these gold and forex payments disappeared into the yawning maw of the SoS’s account in the Bank of England.
It should be noted that India having two heads was beneficial, and encouraged investment per Roy (2019):
The fact that the India Office in London managed a part of the monetary system made India creditworthy, stabilized its currency, and encouraged foreign savers to put money into railways and private enterprise in India. Current research on the history of public debt shows that stable and large colonies found it easier to borrow abroad than independent economies because the investors trusted the guarantee of the colonist powers.

Against India’s net foreign earnings he issued bills, termed Council bills (CBs), to an equivalent rupee value. The rate (between gold-linked sterling and silver rupee) at which the bills were issued, was carefully adjusted to the last farthing, so that foreigners would never find it more profitable to ship financial gold as payment directly to Indians, compared to using the CB route. Foreign importers then sent the CBs by post or by telegraph to the export houses in India, that via the exchange banks were paid out of the budgeted provision of sums under ‘expenditure abroad’, and the exporters in turn paid the producers (peasants and artisans) from whom they sourced the goods.
Sunderland (2013) argues CBs had two main roles (and neither were part of a grand plot to keep gold out of India):
Council bills had two roles. They firstly promoted trade by handing the IO some control of the rate of exchange and allowing the exchange banks to remit funds to India and to hedge currency transaction risks. They also enabled the Indian government to transfer cash to England for the payment of its UK commitments.

The United Nations (1962) historical data for 1900 to 1960, show that for three decades up to 1928 (and very likely earlier too) India posted the second highest merchandise export surplus in the world, with USA in the first position. Not only were Indians deprived of every bit of the enormous international purchasing power they had earned over 175 years, even its rupee equivalent was not issued to them since not even the colonial government was credited with any part of India’s net gold and forex earnings against which it could issue rupees. The sleight-of-hand employed, namely ‘paying’ producers out of their own taxes, made India’s export surplus unrequited and constituted a tax-financed drain to the metropolis, as had been correctly pointed out by those highly insightful classical writers, Dadabhai Naoroji and RCDutt.
It doesn't appear that others appreciate their insight Roy (2019):
K. N. Chaudhuri rightly calls such practice ‘confused’ economics ‘coloured by political feelings’.

Surplus budgets to effect such heavy tax-financed transfers had a severe employment–reducing and income-deflating effect: mass consumption was squeezed in order to release export goods. Per capita annual foodgrains absorption in British India declined from 210 kg. during the period 1904-09, to 157 kg. during 1937-41, and to only 137 kg by 1946.
Dewey (1978) points out reliability issues with Indian agriculutural statistics, however this calorie decline persists to this day. Some of it is attributed to less food being consumed at home Smith (2015), a lower infectious disease burden Duh & Spears (2016) and diversified diets Vankatesh et al. (2016).
If even a part of its enormous foreign earnings had been credited to it and not entirely siphoned off, India could have imported modern technology to build up an industrial structure as Japan was doing.
This is, unfortunately, impossible to prove. Had the British not arrived in India, there is no clear indication that India would've united (this is arguably more plausible than the given counterfactual1). Had the British not arrived in India, there is no clear indication India would not have been nuked in WW2, much like Japan. Had the British not arrived in India, there is no clear indication India would not have been invaded by lizard people, much like Japan. The list continues eternally.
Nevertheless, I will charitably examine the given counterfactual anyway. Did pre-colonial India have industrial potential? The answer is a resounding no.
From Gupta (1980):
This article starts from the premise that while economic categories - the extent of commodity production, wage labour, monetarisation of the economy, etc - should be the basis for any analysis of the production relations of pre-British India, it is the nature of class struggles arising out of particular class alignments that finally gives the decisive twist to social change. Arguing on this premise, and analysing the available evidence, this article concludes that there was little potential for industrial revolution before the British arrived in India because, whatever might have been the character of economic categories of that period, the class relations had not sufficiently matured to develop productive forces and the required class struggle for a 'revolution' to take place.
A view echoed in Raychaudhuri (1983):
Yet all of this did not amount to an economic situation comparable to that of western Europe on the eve of the industrial revolution. Her technology - in agriculture as well as manufacturers - had by and large been stagnant for centuries. [...] The weakness of the Indian economy in the mid-eighteenth century, as compared to pre-industrial Europe was not simply a matter of technology and commercial and industrial organization. No scientific or geographical revolution formed part of the eighteenth-century Indian's historical experience. [...] Spontaneous movement towards industrialisation is unlikely in such a situation.
So now we've established India did not have industrial potential, was India similar to Japan just before the Meiji era? The answer, yet again, unsurprisingly, is no. Japan's economic situation was not comparable to India's, which allowed for Japan to finance its revolution. From Yasuba (1986):
All in all, the Japanese standard of living may not have been much below the English standard of living before industrialization, and both of them may have been considerably higher than the Indian standard of living. We can no longer say that Japan started from a pathetically low economic level and achieved a rapid or even "miraculous" economic growth. Japan's per capita income was almost as high as in Western Europe before industrialization, and it was possible for Japan to produce surplus in the Meiji Period to finance private and public capital formation.
The circumstances that led to Meiji Japan were extremely unique. See Tomlinson (1985):
Most modern comparisons between India and Japan, written by either Indianists or Japanese specialists, stress instead that industrial growth in Meiji Japan was the product of unique features that were not reproducible elsewhere. [...] it is undoubtably true that Japan's progress to industrialization has been unique and unrepeatable
So there you have it. Unsubstantiated statistical assumptions, calling any number you can a drain & assuming a counterfactual for no good reason gets you this $45 trillion number. Hopefully that's enough to bury it in the ground.
1. Several authors have affirmed that Indian identity is a colonial artefact. For example see Rajan 1969:
Perhaps the single greatest and most enduring impact of British rule over India is that it created an Indian nation, in the modern political sense. After centuries of rule by different dynasties overparts of the Indian sub-continent, and after about 100 years of British rule, Indians ceased to be merely Bengalis, Maharashtrians,or Tamils, linguistically and culturally.
or see Bryant 2000:
But then, it would be anachronistic to condemn eighteenth-century Indians, who served the British, as collaborators, when the notion of 'democratic' nationalism or of an Indian 'nation' did not then exist. [...] Indians who fought for them, differed from the Europeans in having a primary attachment to a non-belligerent religion, family and local chief, which was stronger than any identity they might have with a more remote prince or 'nation'.

Bibliography

Chakrabarti, Shubra & Patnaik, Utsa (2018). Agrarian and other histories: Essays for Binay Bhushan Chaudhuri. Colombia University Press
Hickel, Jason (2018). How the British stole $45 trillion from India. The Guardian
Bhuyan, Aroonim & Sharma, Krishan (2019). The Great Loot: How the British stole $45 trillion from India. Indiapost
Monbiot, George (2020). English Landowners have stolen our rights. It is time to reclaim them. The Guardian
Tsjeng, Zing (2020). How Britain Stole $45 trillion from India with trains | Empires of Dirt. Vice
Chaudhury, Dipanjan (2019). British looted $45 trillion from India in today’s value: Jaishankar. The Economic Times
Roy, Tirthankar (2019). How British rule changed India's economy: The Paradox of the Raj. Palgrave Macmillan
Patnaik, Utsa (2018). How the British impoverished India. Hindustan Times
Tuovila, Alicia (2019). Expenditure method. Investopedia
Dewey, Clive (2019). Changing the guard: The dissolution of the nationalist–Marxist orthodoxy in the agrarian and agricultural history of India. The Indian Economic & Social History Review
Chandra, Bipan et al. (1989). India's Struggle for Independence, 1857-1947. Penguin Books
Frankema, Ewout & Booth, Anne (2019). Fiscal Capacity and the Colonial State in Asia and Africa, c. 1850-1960. Cambridge University Press
Dalal, Sucheta (2019). IL&FS Controversy: Centre is Paying Up on Sovereign Guarantees to ADB, KfW for Group's Loan. TheWire
Chaudhuri, K.N. (1983). X - Foreign Trade and Balance of Payments (1757–1947). Cambridge University Press
Sunderland, David (2013). Financing the Raj: The City of London and Colonial India, 1858-1940. Boydell Press
Dewey, Clive (1978). Patwari and Chaukidar: Subordinate officials and the reliability of India’s agricultural statistics. Athlone Press
Smith, Lisa (2015). The great Indian calorie debate: Explaining rising undernourishment during India’s rapid economic growth. Food Policy
Duh, Josephine & Spears, Dean (2016). Health and Hunger: Disease, Energy Needs, and the Indian Calorie Consumption Puzzle. The Economic Journal
Vankatesh, P. et al. (2016). Relationship between Food Production and Consumption Diversity in India – Empirical Evidences from Cross Section Analysis. Agricultural Economics Research Review
Gupta, Shaibal (1980). Potential of Industrial Revolution in Pre-British India. Economic and Political Weekly
Raychaudhuri, Tapan (1983). I - The mid-eighteenth-century background. Cambridge University Press
Yasuba, Yasukichi (1986). Standard of Living in Japan Before Industrialization: From what Level did Japan Begin? A Comment. The Journal of Economic History
Tomblinson, B.R. (1985). Writing History Sideways: Lessons for Indian Economic Historians from Meiji Japan. Cambridge University Press
Rajan, M.S. (1969). The Impact of British Rule in India. Journal of Contemporary History
Bryant, G.J. (2000). Indigenous Mercenaries in the Service of European Imperialists: The Case of the Sepoys in the Early British Indian Army, 1750-1800. War in History
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Looking back 18 months.

I was going through old emails today and came across this one I sent out to family on January 4, 2018. It was a reflection on the 2017 crypto bull market and where I saw it heading, as well as some general advice on crypto, investment, and being safe about how you handle yourself in cryptoland.
I feel that we are on the cusp of a new bull market right now, so I thought that I would put this out for at least a few people to see *before* the next bull run, not after. While the details have changed, I don't see a thing in this email that I fundamentally wouldn't say again, although I'd also probably insist that people get a Yubikey and use that for all 2FA where it is supported.
Happy reading, and sorry for some of the formatting weirdness -- I cleaned it up pretty well from the original email formatting, but I love lists and indents and Reddit has limitations... :-/
Also, don't laught at my token picks from January 2018! It was a long time ago and (luckliy) I took my own advice about moving a bunch into USD shortly after I sent this. I didn't hit the top, and I came back in too early in the summer of 2018, but I got lucky in many respects.
----------------------------------------------------------------------- Jan-4, 2018
Hey all!
I woke up this morning to ETH at a solid $1000 and decided to put some thoughts together on what I think crypto has done and what I think it will do. *******, if you could share this to your kids I’d appreciate it -- I don’t have e-mail addresses, and it’s a bit unwieldy for FB Messenger… Hopefully they’ll at least find it thought-provoking. If not, they can use it as further evidence that I’m a nutjob. 😉
Some history before I head into the future.
I first mined some BTC in 2011 or 2012 (Can’t remember exactly, but it was around the Christmas holidays when I started because I had time off from work to get it set up and running.) I kept it up through the start of summer in 2012, but stopped because it made my PC run hot and as it was no longer winter, ********** didn’t appreciate the sound of the fans blowing that hot air into the room any more. I’ve always said that the first BTC I mined was at $1, but looking back at it now, that’s not true – It was around $2. Here’s a link to BTC price history.
In the summer of 2013 I got a new PC and moved my programs and files over before scrapping the old one. I hadn’t touched my BTC mining folder for a year then, and I didn’t even think about salvaging those wallet files. They are now gone forever, including the 9-10BTC that were in them. While I can intellectually justify the loss, it was sloppy and underlines a key thing about cryptocurrency that I believe will limit its widespread adoption by the general public until it is addressed and solved: In cryptoland, you are your own bank, and if you lose your password or account number, there is no person or organization that can help you reset it so that you can get access back. Your money is gone forever.
On April 12, 2014 I bought my first BTC through Coinbase. BTC had spiked to $1000 and been in the news, at least in Japan. This made me remember my old wallet and freak out for a couple of months trying to find it and reclaim the coins. I then FOMO’d (Fear Of Missing Out”) and bought $100 worth of BTC. I was actually very lucky in my timing and bought at around $430. Even so, except for a brief 50% swing up almost immediately afterwards that made me check prices 5 times a day, BTC fell below my purchase price by the end of September and I didn’t get back to even until the end of 2015.
In May 2015 I bought my first ETH at around $1. I sent some guy on bitcointalk ~$100 worth of BTC and he sent me 100 ETH – all on trust because the amounts were small and this was a small group of people. BTC was down in the $250 range at that point, so I had lost 30-40% of my initial investment. This was of the $100 invested, so not that much in real terms, but huge in percentages. It also meant that I had to buy another $100 of BTC on Coinbase to send to this guy. A few months after I purchased my ETH, BTC had doubled and ETH had gone down to $0.50, halving the value of my ETH holdings. I was even on the first BTC purchase finally, but was now down 50% on the ETH I had bought.
The good news was that this made me start to look at things more seriously. Where I had skimmed white papers and gotten a superficial understanding of the technology before FOMO’ing, I started to act as an investor, not a speculator. Let me define how I see those two different types of activity:
So what has been my experience as an investor? After sitting out the rest of 2015 because I needed to understand the market better, I bought into ETH quite heavily, with my initial big purchases being in March-April of 2016. Those purchases were in the $11-$14 range. ETH, of course, dropped immediately to under $10, then came back and bounced around my purchase range for a while until December of 2016, when I purchased a lot more at around $8.
I also purchased my first ICO in August of 2016, HEAT. I bought 25ETH worth. Those tokens are now worth about half of their ICO price, so about 12.5ETH or $12500 instead of the $25000 they would be worth if I had just kept ETH. There are some other things with HEAT that mean I’ve done quite a bit better than those numbers would suggest, but the fact is that the single best thing I could have done is to hold ETH and not spend the effort/time/cost of working with HEAT. That holds true for about every top-25 token on the market when compared to ETH. It certainly holds true for the many, many tokens I tried to trade in Q1-Q2 of 2017. In almost every single case I would have done better and slept better had I just held ETH instead of trying to be smarter than Mr. Market.
But, I made money on all of them except one because the crypto market went up more in USD terms than any individual coin went down in ETH or BTC terms. This underlines something that I read somewhere and that I take to heart: A rising market makes everyone seem like a genius. A monkey throwing darts at a list of the top 100 cryptocurrencies last year would have doubled his money. Here’s a chart from September that shows 2017 year-to-date returns for the top 10 cryptocurrencies, and all of them went up a *lot* more between then and December. A monkey throwing darts at this list there would have quintupled his money.
When evaluating performance, then, you have to beat the monkey, and preferably you should try to beat a Wall Street monkey. I couldn’t, so I stopped trying around July 2017. My benchmark was the BLX, a DAA (Digital Asset Array – think fund like a Fidelity fund) created by ICONOMI. I wasn’t even close to beating the BLX returns, so I did several things.
  1. I went from holding about 25 different tokens to holding 10 now. More on that in a bit.
  2. I used those funds to buy ETH and BLX. ETH has done crazy-good since then and BLX has beaten BTC handily, although it hasn’t done as well as ETH.
  3. I used some of those funds to set up an arbitrage operation.
The arbitrage operation is why I kept the 11 tokens that I have now. All but a couple are used in an ETH/token pair for arbitrage, and each one of them except for one special case is part of BLX. Why did I do that? I did that because ICONOMI did a better job of picking long-term holds than I did, and in arbitrage the only speculative thing you must do is pick the pairs to trade. My pairs are (No particular order):
I also hold PLU, PLBT, and ART. These two are multi-year holds for me. I have not purchased BTC once since my initial $200, except for a few cases where BTC was the only way to go to/from an altcoin that didn’t trade against ETH yet. Right now I hold about the same 0.3BTC that I held after my first $100 purchase, so I don’t really count it.
Looking forward to this year, I am positioning myself as follows:
Looking at my notes, I have two other things that I wanted to work into this email that I didn’t get to, so here they are:
  1. Just like with free apps and other software, if you are getting something of value and you didn’t pay anything for it, you need to ask why this is. With apps, the phrase is “If you didn’t pay for the product, you are the product”, and this works for things such as pump groups, tips, and even technical analysis. Here’s how I see it.
    1. People don’t give tips on stocks or crypto that they don’t already own that stock or token. Why would they, since if they convince anyone to buy it, the price only goes up as a result, making it more expensive for them to buy in? Sure, you will have friends and family that may do this, but people in a crypto club, your local cryptocurrency meetup, or online are generally not your friends. They are there to make money, and if they can get you to help them make money, they will do it. Pump groups are the worst of these, and no matter how enticing it may look, stay as far away as possible from these scams. I even go so far as to report them when I see them advertise on FB or Twitter, because they are violating the terms of use.
    2. Technical analysis (TA) is something that has been argued about for longer than I’ve been alive, but I think that it falls into the same boat. In short, TA argues that there are patterns in trading that can be read and acted upon to signal when one must buy or sell. It has been used forever in the stock and foreign exchange markets, and people use it in crypto as well. Let’s break down these assumptions a bit.
i. First, if crypto were like the stock or forex markets we’d all be happy with 5-7% gains per year rather than easily seeing that in a day. For TA to work the same way in crypto as it does in stocks and foreign exchange, the signals would have to be *much* stronger and faster-reacting than they work in the traditional market, but people use them in exactly the same way.
ii. Another area where crypto is very different than the stock and forex markets centers around market efficiency theory. This theory says that markets are efficient and that the price reflects all the available information at any given time. This is why gold in New York is similar in price to gold in London or Shanghai, and why arbitrage margins are easily <0.1% in those markets compared to cryptoland where I can easily get 10x that. Crypto simply has too much speculation and not enough professional traders in it yet to operate as an efficient market. That fundamentally changes the way that the market behaves and should make any TA patterns from traditional markets irrelevant in crypto.
iii. There are services, both free and paid that claim to put out signals based on TA for when one should buy and sell. If you think for even a second that they are not front-running (Placing orders ahead of yours to profit.) you and the other people using the service, you’re naïve.
iv. Likewise, if you don’t think that there are people that have but together computerized systems to get ahead of people doing manual TA, you’re naïve. The guys that I have programming my arbitrage bots have offered to build me a TA bot and set up a service to sell signals once our position is taken. I said no, but I am sure that they will do it themselves or sell that to someone else. Basically they look at TA as a tip machine where when a certain pattern is seen, people act on that “tip”. They use software to see that “tip” faster and take a position on it so that when slower participants come in they either have to sell lower or buy higher than the TA bot did. Remember, if you are getting a tip for free, you’re the product. In TA I see a system when people are all acting on free preset “tips” and getting played by the more sophisticated market participants. Again, you have to beat that Wall Street monkey.
  1. If you still don’t agree that TA is bogus, think about it this way: If TA was real, Wall Street would have figured it out decades ago and we would have TA funds that would be beating the market. We don’t.
  2. If you still don’t agree that TA is bogus and that its real and well, proven, then you must think that all smart traders use them. Now follow that logic forward and think about what would happen if every smart trader pushing big money followed TA. The signals would only last for a split second and would then be overwhelmed by people acting on them, making them impossible to leverage. This is essentially what the efficient market theory postulates for all information, including TA.
OK, the one last item. Read this weekly newsletter – You can sign up at the bottom. It is free, so they’re selling something, right? 😉 From what I can tell, though, Evan is a straight-up guy who posts links and almost zero editorial comments.
Happy 2018.
submitted by uetani to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

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  584. TeensMeetTeens
  585. razer
  586. USAA
  587. Nitrotype
  588. AnaMains
  589. Shitstatistssay
  590. summonerswar
  591. DestinyLFG
  592. riverdale
  593. superpowereds
  594. Kakegurui
  595. EntitledPeople
  596. rutgers
  597. DragonballLegends
  598. OnePieceTC
  599. DBZDokkanBattle
  600. MortisGang
  601. gaybrosgonemild
  602. Tunisia
  603. YouTube_startups
  604. TwitterFollowers
  605. hackintosh
  606. twitter_memes
  607. YouTubePromoter
  608. SimCity
  609. weather
  610. LowSodiumDestiny
  611. IncreasinglyVerbose
  612. suddenlysexoffender
  613. absolutelynotme_irl
  614. 4PanelCringe
  615. Monk
  616. u_VeryWeirdHumanBeing
  617. thanksihateit
  618. MiniLadd
  619. flatearth
  620. bertstrips
  621. FortniteBattleRoyale
  622. ShrineOfJonesy
  623. custommagic
  624. China
  625. Rowing
  626. CardiganWelshCorgi
  627. GlobalOffensive
  628. AustralianShepherd
  629. montageparodies
  630. seltzer
  631. Hedgehog
  632. wallpaper
  633. TeenagersShitpost
  634. CallOfDuty
  635. ShadowBan
  636. TeensDebate
  637. PoliticalDiscussion
  638. Youbrokethechain
  639. MadeInAbyss
  640. grilledcheese
  641. DidntKnowIWantedThat
  642. httyd
  643. AvengersEndGame
  644. FortniteDisscusion
  645. Kaiserreich
  646. yesyesyesno
  647. puns
  648. u_andrew_982_
  649. orangesbeingbros
  650. geometrydash
  651. ilikemybeatsfast
  652. EmojiPolice
  653. BanVideoGames
  654. Telephoneism
  655. onewordeach
  656. TheRightCantMeme
  657. u_LegendGamer320
  658. Library
  659. BetaLands
  660. MortalKombat
  661. retrogaming
  662. nes
  663. Gameboy
  664. ClassicRock
  665. Tinder
  666. intotheshadowrealm
  667. highdeas
  668. AccidentalThanos
  669. shittymoviedetails
  670. trebuchetmemes
  671. TheOfficialPodcast
  672. Getdownmrpresident
  673. UnethicalLifeProTips
  674. talesfromcavesupport
  675. BattlefieldV
  676. UNCCharlotte
  677. Military
  678. Buddhism
  679. biology
  680. Blackrun
  681. single
  682. PostAndBanned
  683. PedoLogic
  684. wooooosh
  685. gaeilge
  686. woof_irl
  687. u_PeePeePooPooHead69
  688. csgo
  689. AskOujia
  690. YuB
  691. SubsIFellFor
  692. pokemonuranium
  693. familyguy
  694. u_yeetus-Antq
  695. TheOther14mil
  696. badteachers
  697. ExplainAGamePlotBadly
  698. u_mrbro1o1
  699. KrunkerIO
  700. dankmemes2
  701. shieldbro
  702. PSP
  703. collage
  704. Roms
  705. mormon
  706. dirtyvoicechat
  707. Internet
  708. NoFapChristians
  709. MinecraftOne
  710. minecraftseeds
  711. xboxone
  712. FuckMyShitUp
  713. PUBGXboxOne
  714. fourpanelcringe
  715. Dogfree
  716. CanadianHardwareSwap
  717. hardwareswap
  718. MinecraftCommands
  719. prusa3d
  720. Wealthsimple_Trade
  721. redbull
  722. IVBDA
  723. ac_newhorizons
  724. raresuicidebywords
  725. fourredditorsonecup
  726. unexpectedcannibalism
  727. airpods
  728. rimjob_steve
  729. flextapecantfixthat
  730. twentyonepilots
  731. DecreasinglyVerbose
  732. TheRealJoke
  733. UpvotedBecauseButt
  734. redditsings
  735. TwennyWunPilots
  736. iOSthemes
  737. subtleprequelmemes
  738. HarleyQuinn
  739. Niggawhat
  740. Shitty_Car_Mods
  741. subsithoughtifellfor
  742. Voltron
  743. epicmemes
  744. vancouver
  745. Warhammer40k
  746. PokemonXandY
  747. LooksLikeSlazo
  748. IamNumberFour
  749. swrpg
  750. MafiaCityMemes
  751. swtor
  752. RoyaleRecruit
  753. Vaping
  754. pan_media
  755. DestinyLore
  756. FortniteSucks
  757. fightporn
  758. themob
  759. u_GrizzyIy
  760. XXXTENTACION
  761. 4chan
  762. MusicForTeens
  763. tazman595
  764. karma
  765. school
  766. Cancersupportgroup
  767. cancer
  768. SeriousConversation
  769. PeopleAreFckinStupid
  770. JackSucksAtLife
  771. Why
  772. oddlyspecific
  773. oculus
  774. bookclapreviewclap
  775. FixMyPrint
  776. arduino
  777. EtikaRedditNetwork
  778. SmallWitDatHotFiya
  779. 465
  780. idklolihidsomething
  781. hmssss
  782. UsefulMemes
  783. calebfinn
  784. Animal
  785. randomactsofkindness
  786. shy
  787. TomHolland
  788. bulletjournal
  789. shittyfacebookmemes
  790. EmpireDidNothingWrong
  791. OculusQuest
  792. coincidence
  793. chairsunderwater
  794. DecaturHighschoolGA
  795. XXY
  796. Dyslexia
  797. uwutranslator
  798. ContestOfChampions
  799. UsernameChecksOut
  800. unexpectedtrivago
  801. wrongnumber
  802. venmo
  803. IllegalLifeProTips
  804. HitBoxPorn
  805. Shrek
  806. weirdnews
  807. specialed
  808. EndgameSpoilers
  809. specialeducation
  810. antivax
  811. AntiVaxxers
  812. u_purpleyellowpaint
  813. bi_irl
  814. sugarfreemua
  815. lanadelrey
  816. volleyball
  817. muacjdiscussion
  818. ThisButUnironically
  819. ShitLiberalsSay
  820. brokeabone
  821. discord_irl
  822. excitingdystopia
  823. BenBashiroLore
  824. VaushV
  825. ABoringDystopia
  826. FristOfAllHowDareYou
  827. hamsters
  828. SubredditSimMeta
  829. TropicalWeather
  830. Landlord
  831. AntifascistsofReddit
  832. hamstercare
  833. vexillologycirclejerk
  834. therewasnoattempt
  835. ennnnnnnnnnnnbbbbbby
  836. RealSolarSystem
  837. u_CondomCrusader69
  838. band
  839. FlexSealFanClub
  840. Armor
  841. MemeFormats
  842. Puberty
  843. conceptart
  844. CondomKingdom
  845. u_Some16yoLosr
  846. FireEmblemHeroes
  847. FondantLove
  848. LaCrescentMN
  849. u_PugMage101
  850. darkvideos
  851. u_Sadness92
  852. PERSoNA
  853. JacksFilms
  854. jschlatt
  855. castlevania
  856. stfuretard
  857. CloneWarsMemes
  858. DeepFried
  859. legostarwars
  860. u_DVproductions64
  861. KamikazeByWords
  862. ImGoingToHellForThis
  863. linuxmemes
  864. codes
  865. crypto
  866. cpp_questions
  867. Laptop
  868. debian
  869. Kalilinux
  870. PHP
  871. TOR
  872. Doomers
  873. learnpython
  874. RecRoom
  875. orbusvr
  876. VirtualDesktop
  877. bigscreen
  878. ProTubeVR
  879. VRchat
  880. OculusQuestModding
  881. Borderlands2
  882. DeathToBuzzfeed
  883. deadbabyjokes
  884. u_MCT1233
  885. kpop
  886. crystalclear
  887. GIDLE
  888. pokemongoyellow
  889. bidle
  890. unpopularkpopopinions
  891. HermitCraft
  892. ItHadToBeBrazil
  893. grian
  894. MumboJumboYouTube
  895. recycling
  896. usernamefamily
  897. BirdsArentReal
  898. u_Gay_Papa
  899. BSA
  900. u_ConsumeSyrup
  901. ModdedMinecraft
  902. ROBLOXmemes
  903. gangbeasts
  904. Discussion
  905. CrossCountry
  906. fuck
  907. FML
  908. TonightsBigLosers
  909. skeppy
  910. mcservers
  911. pussypassdenied
  912. backgrounds
  913. IsThereASubredditFor
  914. BulletHellMonday
  915. u_whyMYpeepeeGREEN
  916. marchingband
  917. TuberSimulator
  918. FosterTheCirclejerk
  919. GiftofGames
  920. deadmeatjames
  921. AshVsEvilDead
  922. GachaLifeCringe
  923. IntotheDarkHulu
  924. ChernobylMemes
  925. asl
  926. Hong_Kong
  927. vexillology
  928. imaginarymaps
  929. mountaindew
  930. SurrealApprovals
  931. Blessed_Images
  932. Metallica
  933. ainbow
  934. u_Mr-Damaged
  935. SmallYTChannel
  936. skype
  937. FamilyIssues
  938. FellowTeens
  939. MinecraftParodyMemes
  940. BloodyLegends
  941. DankMemes_Circlejerk
  942. cursedminecraftimages
  943. TeenagersUnrelatable
  944. reddeadfashion
  945. reddeadmemes
  946. itswooshwith2os
  947. phones
  948. Fishers
  949. Quizlet_Live_Raids
  950. CutePuppyPics
  951. u_Wakeless_place
  952. SeenElsewhere
  953. GreyStillPlays
  954. LazarBeam
  955. FUCKYOUINPARTICULAR
  956. stein_world
  957. perfectphotos
  958. PhoenixSC
  959. Crayfish
  960. MinecraftVsFortnite
  961. CallOfDutyWorldWarTwo
  962. hypixel
  963. videomemes
  964. KeanuReeves
  965. ubisoft
  966. jacksepticeye
  967. Filmora
  968. montreal
  969. ComradeSShow
  970. InsiderMemeTrading
  971. unnamedfanbase
  972. LoomianLegacyTrading
  973. AnimalCrossingNewLeaf
  974. AdoptMyVillager
  975. papermario
  976. Memeconomy
  977. TooCuteForPorn
  978. ben
  979. GTAV
  980. smplive
  981. galaxybuds
  982. AMCsAList
  983. TwitchClips
  984. Spellbreak
  985. QueerEye
  986. jesuschristouija
  987. u_randomflyingcars
  988. onebag
  989. networking
  990. Dappermemes
  991. CrazyIdeas
  992. hardware
  993. beagle
  994. BoomerTears
  995. keto
  996. european_dankmemes
  997. QuantumSubreddits
  998. TeenMomOGandTeenMom2
  999. WeightLossAdvice
  1000. RLFashionAdvice
  1001. MetalMemes
  1002. systemofadown
  1003. guitarcirclejerk
  1004. drums
  1005. Megadeth
  1006. weightlifting
  1007. gmod
  1008. avengedsevenfold
  1009. airsoftcirclejerk
  1010. paintball
  1011. arma
  1012. joinsquad
  1013. AOC
  1014. fakeobituary
  1015. fuckmanny
  1016. JustBeWhite
  1017. GODUS
  1018. fuckalinity
  1019. adventurerscodex
  1020. slavbot
  1021. Meme_Battles
  1022. u_Trollium2166
  1023. gtavcustoms
  1024. 350z
  1025. Hawaii
  1026. Scootering
  1027. skate3
  1028. bmx
  1029. arizona
  1030. Sunsets
  1031. projectcar
  1032. Mustang
  1033. snowboarding
  1034. Boxing
  1035. u_slyone05
  1036. gank
  1037. ForHonorWuLin
  1038. bruhfunny
  1039. ForHonorRants
  1040. ProjectJojo
  1041. ProGreenStarPlatinum
  1042. fanStands
  1043. nothingeverhappens
  1044. imveryedgy
  1045. stupidquestions
  1046. forhonorknights
  1047. UnexpectedForHonor
  1048. ShootingFishInABarrel
  1049. RubberSoulMains
  1050. JojoHFTF
  1051. UnexpectedJoJo
  1052. undetectedsabaton
  1053. Battlefield
  1054. MillenniumDawn
  1055. fightsticks
  1056. okuyasu_irl
  1057. Stepmania
  1058. WOOOOOOSHED
  1059. shigechi_appreciation
  1060. completelyrealtexts
  1061. SteamScams
  1062. Powerwolf
  1063. u_KindStrangerOnReddit
  1064. PvZHeroes
  1065. Fish
  1066. JuiceWRLD
  1067. Gatorade
  1068. SelfHate
  1069. UgandaKnuckles
  1070. depressed
  1071. walouija
  1072. WeirdQuites
  1073. askdoctors
  1074. u_White0000
  1075. TrollXChromosomes
  1076. NarutoBlazing
  1077. u_Datnotguy17
  1078. howtokeepanidiotbusy
  1079. AyyMD
  1080. Jreg
  1081. wheresMwaldo
  1082. Political_Tumor
  1083. Purdue
  1084. GamingDetails
  1085. Handwriting
  1086. CrossView
  1087. SharedBPM
  1088. test
  1089. Stonetossingjuice
  1090. PictureGame
  1091. explainabookplotbadly
  1092. DuwangGang
  1093. Meemagers
  1094. CallMeCarson
  1095. ToolJerk
  1096. cursedmemes
  1097. virtualbeggar
  1098. left4dead
  1099. bigbangedmemes
  1100. whatintarnation
  1101. comicbookcollecting
  1102. Trophies
  1103. u_lilsusnibba
  1104. subredditwithnorules
  1105. homestuck
  1106. lux
  1107. TeamfightTactics
  1108. Wukongmains
  1109. LeagueofFailures
  1110. LeagueOfMemes
  1111. ezrealmains
  1112. akalimains
  1113. yuumimains
  1114. YIMO
  1115. botlanetinder
  1116. supportlol
  1117. MordekaiserMains
  1118. YasuoMains
  1119. neekomains
  1120. ApheliousMains
  1121. LEMMiNO
  1122. space
  1123. wwiipics
  1124. u_alt_1236
  1125. FiftyFiftyDev
  1126. MercyClub
  1127. Normies
  1128. wooooshwith4os
  1129. DungeonsAndDragons
  1130. spongebob
  1131. FromTheDepths
  1132. SpaceflightSimulator
  1133. BeardedDragons
  1134. Spore
  1135. TeenAstronomy
  1136. HistoryPorn
  1137. u_OneStrikeyBoi
  1138. tylerthecreator
  1139. PictureRap
  1140. CryptoftheNecrodancer
  1141. Teens4Teens
  1142. freenagers
  1143. RamenRegime
  1144. SemenTeam
  1145. Pitland
  1146. insaneparents
  1147. 90DayFiance
  1148. Chinesetourists
  1149. interracialdating
  1150. PutAnEggOnIt
  1151. drawings
  1152. u_kayasphotographs
  1153. mildlycreepy
  1154. likeothergirls
  1155. kahootgames
  1156. PoliticalCompassMemes
  1157. mood
  1158. cfbsober
  1159. TIGoogled
  1160. fsusports
  1161. rolltide
  1162. NewYorkMets
  1163. HuntsvilleAlabama
  1164. nfl
  1165. minnesotavikings
  1166. KarmaCourt
  1167. CFBOffTopic
  1168. Teenageers
  1169. 3BeansAndABeerCap
  1170. popheadscirclejerk
  1171. PuppySmiles
  1172. Komi_san
  1173. freebies
  1174. zerowondering
  1175. 177013
  1176. untrustworthypoptarts
  1177. subredditcancer
  1178. SubwayHentai
  1179. TsundereSharks
  1180. bee_irl
  1181. banned
  1182. LGBTOpenModmail
  1183. u_Rulx8
  1184. The_Dedede
  1185. NintendoWaifus
  1186. pchelp
  1187. SweetHomeAlabama
  1188. SmallYoutubers
  1189. Advertise
  1190. Suddenlybabyimyours
  1191. Lolitary
  1192. PornoMemes
  1193. clevercomebacks
  1194. SpaceMemes
  1195. TankPorn
  1196. AbandonedPorn
  1197. Hbonds
  1198. Jewdank
  1199. LiveLikeLarry
  1200. birdswitharms
  1201. SchoolSystemBroke
  1202. popping
  1203. okboomerretard
  1204. plants
  1205. PhonesAreBad
  1206. SavageGarden
  1207. airplaneears
  1208. shutthefuckup
  1209. mermaids
  1210. OriginalCharacters
  1211. tuckedinkitties
  1212. RoastMyCat
  1213. curledfeetsies
  1214. Hellenism
  1215. yandere_simulator
  1216. catsareliquid
  1217. trichotillomania
  1218. lazarbeamsubmissions
  1219. dark_humor
  1220. fucksauerkraut
  1221. TheBeatles
  1222. produce
  1223. French
  1224. LilPeep
  1225. GitCommitDie
  1226. u_Brisingr_105
  1227. MarioMaker
  1228. gamingsuggestions
  1229. animation
  1230. FortniteCreative
  1231. ShrineOfFishstick
  1232. FortNiteMobile
  1233. FortniteSwitch
  1234. mariokart
  1235. u_Rodolfo20
  1236. jordancambridge
  1237. emu
  1238. beermoney
  1239. badminton
  1240. vlone
  1241. TimHortons
  1242. Repsneakers
  1243. TakashiMurakami
  1244. stamps
  1245. yeezys
  1246. DesignerReps
  1247. Rabbits
  1248. DesignMyRoom
  1249. LegitCheck
  1250. Hypebeasts
  1251. Bape
  1252. bapeheads
  1253. kaws
  1254. painting
  1255. vintage
  1256. insects
  1257. fossilid
  1258. Crystals
  1259. u_HanzAAli
  1260. PixelPeople
  1261. lifeisnotjust
  1262. RedditTrollss
  1263. notsureifgoodadvice
  1264. speedrun
  1265. gtavmodding
  1266. JJBA
  1267. whoooosh
  1268. Conrandom
  1269. Birbs
  1270. u_trash5652
  1271. BattleJackets
  1272. guitarlessons
  1273. virginvschad
  1274. Ghostbc
  1275. oldinternet
  1276. Moomins
  1277. Shuffles_Deck
  1278. Vent
  1279. Sims4
  1280. ShittyAdverts
  1281. saudiarabia
  1282. stopsmoking
  1283. ProRevenge
  1284. yaris
  1285. carporn
  1286. u_ThePinkPanda205
  1287. MadeOfStyrofoam
  1288. 5sos
  1289. GAAB350
  1290. formuladank
  1291. xqcow
  1292. whatsthisworth
  1293. GenZ
  1294. danduscirclejerk
  1295. andyterracianofanclub
  1296. radicalcentrism
  1297. killthosewhodisagree
  1298. onlinemischief
  1299. aromantic
  1300. u_TheAceOfToasters
  1301. javahelp
  1302. TheArcana
  1303. AquaticAsFuck
  1304. JohnMulaney
  1305. Assistance
  1306. doodles
  1307. sadcats
  1308. April11Gang
  1309. tomodachilife
  1310. Chonkers
  1311. Multicopter
  1312. ElectricSkateboarding
  1313. subaru
  1314. radiocontrol
  1315. Battlecars
  1316. CafeRacers
  1317. Jeep
  1318. AwesomeCarMods
  1319. rccars
  1320. whatsthissnake
  1321. CalamariRaceTeam
  1322. HotWheels
  1323. outrun
  1324. FPVvideos
  1325. PraiseTheCameraMan
  1326. saladsmiles
  1327. MobileGaming
  1328. techhelp
  1329. Competitiveoverwatch
  1330. Boblin
  1331. PlayINGRust
  1332. WarframeRunway
  1333. u_haggartt
  1334. earthbound
  1335. VizzedGames
  1336. OldReposts
  1337. misheard
  1338. area51
  1339. sharktank
  1340. awesome
  1341. u_PragatiBuffett
  1342. mediawiki
  1343. robertdowneyjr
  1344. JoJoMemes
  1345. u_Gameman740
  1346. ExpandDong
  1347. KarmaSacrifice
  1348. Minecraftbuilds
  1349. Foodlottery
  1350. MisfitShitposts
  1351. JellesMarbleRuns
  1352. Marblelympics
  1353. u_Donghoon
  1354. DhruvTheKid
  1355. RushWars
  1356. RicoGang
  1357. The4KMegaBox
  1358. shittybrawlstars
  1359. SmashLand
  1360. Cosmic_Clash
  1361. barleygang
  1362. DrMarioWorld
  1363. Archero
  1364. golfblitz
  1365. TickGang
  1366. NewSkaters
  1367. TheLetterH
  1368. Crushes
  1369. KarmaRoulette
  1370. u_Manasveer
  1371. UnexpectedThanos
  1372. depression_memes
  1373. u_Banapple101
  1374. drphil
  1375. ShittyPhotoshop
  1376. ft86
  1377. iilluminaughtii
  1378. showerthoughs
  1379. TheBrotherhoodofBros
  1380. MyBloodyValentine
  1381. SamandTolki
  1382. radiohead
  1383. radioheadcirclejerk
  1384. rantgrumps
  1385. googletranslate
  1386. ConspiracyGrumps
  1387. shoegaze
  1388. MichaelJackson
  1389. ClubPenguin
  1390. Toontown
  1391. rumney_marsh_academy
  1392. saplings
  1393. Pomade
  1394. playboicarti
  1395. Adorable_Animals
  1396. OverwatchUniversity
  1397. u_IOPasGhoulTrooper
  1398. CitadelOfSkins
  1399. heathernotpleased
  1400. comingout
  1401. ShitFortNiteBRSays
  1402. fortniteparentsclub
  1403. Cello
  1404. Golfwang
  1405. EveryoneIsAMod
  1406. LightModePatrol
  1407. JadenSmith
  1408. SuddenlyHitler
  1409. FilthyFrank
  1410. VeronaNJ
  1411. evilbuildings
  1412. cursedvideos
  1413. danktintinmemes
  1414. AwardSpeechEdits
  1415. AgainstHateSubreddits
  1416. deepweb
  1417. TeenagersTalkPolitics
  1418. shortcels
  1419. CURRENCY
  1420. WarriorCats
  1421. thedawnpatrol
  1422. upvote
  1423. theydidthemonstermath
  1424. u_ii_karmakun_ii
  1425. HumanTippyTaps
  1426. SamePicOfSteveHarvey
  1427. onionhate
  1428. redbubble
  1429. Tennessee
  1430. singapore
  1431. NuclearRevenge
  1432. JUSTNOMIL
  1433. jesuschristreddit
  1434. FlashTV
  1435. LegendsOfTomorrow
  1436. westworld
  1437. boringdystopia
  1438. dankjewishmemes
  1439. crazystories
  1440. calculators
  1441. LatinoPeopleTwitter
  1442. Dachshund
  1443. AdrenalinePorn
  1444. Dance
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【翻译Quora上一篇问答】中国是否正在面临一次银行危机(谈到房地产) by phoebeDD on 2016-10-04

Is China really facing a banking crisis? What are its origins?
(中国是否正在面对一次银行危机?其根源又是什么?)



According to a recent article titled China facing full-blown banking crisis, world's top financial watchdog war
ns published in the Telegraph:
(根据近期电讯文章报道:“世界顶级金融观察者发出警告:中国正在面临全面的银行危机”)
China has failed to curb excesses in its credit system and faces mounting risks of a full-blown banking crisis
(中国已对债务违约失去控制,他们正在面对随之而来的全面性银行危机)
(中国债务/GDP 占比图)


Financial Crises

International Economics

The Economy

China

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9 Answers
以下为回答部分:





Robin Daverman, Dealmaker
Written Sep 27


Ah, but maybe you want to look around a bit and see how China’s total debt is compared with other economies, like this?
(你可能想看看其他经济体与中国的债务情况相比是怎么样的,如下图)

(G10债务分布图)
If you put China’s data on this chart, it will be somewhere around Canada and New Zealand. Guess Which Country Has Debt Of Nearly 1000% Of GDP... Shocking, isn’t it?
如果你将中国的数据插入上图进行比较的话,中国的数据大约会在加拿大和新西兰之间。猜猜看哪个国家债务大约是自己GDP的10倍....(英国)非常震惊吧
UK has almost 1000% Debt-to-GDP ratio, compared with China’s < 300% Debt-to-GDP ratio, mostly because of that over-sized financial debt - at the end of the day, the government must stand behind it. On top of that, the UK has no resource to sell, hardly any industry left, going through a divorce with EU, and almost never ever meets her fiscal targets. And yet, UK, with its near 1000% debt-to-GDP ratio, is still viewed as the gold standard among safe havens. PRESENTING: The Rosetta Stone Of The Entire Sovereign Debt Crisis Why? Because UK issues debt in her own currency. And who prints the pound? The UK government.
英国的债务/GDP占比将近1000%而中国只是小于300%,其原因是其过于庞大的金融债务——政府最终将不得不为之站台。在此之上,英国没用可出售的资源,没有任何本国工业,正在脱离欧盟,而且英国基本上从来没有达成其财务目标。即使如此,英国仍然被某些传媒视为安全经济体的黄金标准。其原因就是英债都以英镑的方式结算。那么是谁印英镑的呢?英国政府。
Then you take a look at Japan, wow that’s 600%+ debt-to-GDP ratio! But - Japan’s debt is not only mostly internal, in Japanese Yen, but also with 0% or even negative interest. You can roll this kind of debt over practically forever. That’s why people have been yelling about Japanese debt for the last 20 years, and nothing happens.
然后你看看日本,将近600%的债务/GDP占比!但是,日本的债务几乎都是内部的,以日元的形式出售的债务,而且日本是0利率甚至是负利率。实际上这种债务你可以无限积累下去(经济常识:如果是负利率,政府只要保持债务不变,多出来的部分会自行消失)。这就是为啥人们对日债担心了20年但屁事没有发生。
Then you take a look at those economies that have blown up on debt:
Argentina: Government/Sovereign debt in USD, with jurisdiction in New York!Greece: Government/Sovereign debt in Euro, with jurisdiction in Brussels!Iceland: External financial debt → nationalized into Government/Sovereign debt in USD and Euro alone was 700%+ GDP in 2008, with jurisdiction in New York and Brussels.
然后你看看那些因债务问题毁掉的经济体:
阿根廷:政府/主权债务以美元形式结算,其裁判权在纽约!希腊:政府/主权债务以欧元方式结算,其裁判权在布鲁塞尔!冰岛:外部金融债务→债务国有化后2008年政府/主权债务以美元和欧元的形式达到GDP的700%,其裁判权在纽约和布鲁塞尔
Then you look at China, with her debt almost entirely internal, in Chinese RMB to Chinese citizens, government debt at 55%, lower than the US, Japan, and EU average, in her own currency. China’s external debt is about 9% of GDP, globally ranked 184th (less than North Korea, similar to Kosovo) - anyway you look at it, it’s hardly the kind of material to make a banking crisis. China is borrowing a little bit from her own piggy bank. Argentina/Greece/Iceland were borrowing a lot from the Mafia.
然后你看看中国,中国的债务基本都是内部以人民币结算的。中国政府债务只占总债务的55%,比美国,日本和欧盟都要低,再次强调,其债务以人民币结算。中国外部债务只占GDP的9%,全球排行184位(比朝鲜低,比科索沃高)。无论怎么看,你都不会看到中国有任何银行危机的迹象。中国只是向其国内贪心的银行借钱。阿根廷/希腊/冰岛可是像美国欧盟这些黑手党借钱。
PS: The most significant increase in China’s debt is in the financial sector, driven by rising real estate price (which means higher value of housing loans). Right now, the Chinese government is basically using it as a tool to do macro-economic engineering. The goal is to cap urban growth in top tier cities (Beijing, Shanghai, etc.) and push the economic growth to second- and third- tier cities (Hangzhou, the city that just hosted G20, is an example.http://www.g20.org/English/Hangzhou/About/index.html Now you can look back and see why the Chinese government decided to host G20 in a city nobody has ever heard of). This is clearly stated by the Chinese government like 100 times since last year in the official news channels. The reason? Top tier Chinese cities like Shanghai (25 million) already have more city residents than the whole nation of Australia! The metropolitan area of Shanghai (44 million) has more people than the entire population of Canada! In one city! Beijing’s population grew by 8 million within the last decade! The place is simply full.List of cities in China by population and built-up area
PS: 中国最显著的债务增长是在其金融领域内不断升高的房价造成的(不断增高的房贷造成债务问题)。现在中国政府正在利用房价作为宏观经济调控的工具。其目的是限制一线城市的城市化进程和加速二三线城市的发展(刚刚举办了G20的杭州就是个例子,现在你就能知道为啥中国政府将G20放在一个没人听说过的城市举行了)。这些政策中国政府已经在官媒上宣布了无数次。原因就是一线城市,例如上海(2500万人口),其居民数量比阿根廷全国人口还要多!上海都市圈(4400万人口)的人口数量比加拿大全国还要多!北京人口数量在过去的10年内增长了800万!这些城市的人口数量已经饱和了。
In addition to real estate prices, the Chinese government is also doing stuff like restricting residents permits, disallowing second or third homes, even restricting jobs to local residents, everything to say “this place is full. We have these other nice choices, with lower housing prices. Go there.” Young people complaining about housing prices in tier-one cities? But that’s the whole point. The debt you have to take on to live in tier-one cities SHOULD SCARE YOU OFF. The Chinese government is trying to stop the influx of people pouring into tier-one cities, and get these smart and energetic youths to go build two, three, four, five. … more Shanghai’s in other parts of China. 1.4 billion people can’t all fit into tier-one cities.
除了以房地产为手段,中国政府也加强控制了居住证的发放,禁止第二/三套房买入甚至对本地居民的工作种类进行限制,这些都是为了表达一个意思:这些地方都人满为患了。二三线城市有更低的房价和更好的生活条件,快点去那里吧!年轻人都在抱怨一线城市的高房价?但这就是中国政府想要的。你在一线城市生存需要的代价会把你吓退。中国政府正在尝试控制一线城市的人口流入而让有技术和充满活力的年轻人去建设二三四五线城市——让更多的上海出现在国家的其他地方。14亿人口是没可能全部都聚集在一线城市的。
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Paul Denlinger, Involved in China economics study
Written Sep 27


There is too much debt, and a lot of it is likely to turn into bad debt, but that does not equal a banking crisis.
是因为中国贷款太多了,而这些贷款大多数会变成不良贷款,但这些都不等银行危机
Banking crisis may be a nice term to bandy around and get clicks and headlines, but does not really explain what is going on.
银行危机或许是一个十分吸引眼球的头条,但是根本就不能解释实际的情况
There was a lot of debt financing, especially after the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis in the US. In order to keep the economy on a steady keel, the Chinese government, through its banks, pumped money to Chinese state-owned enterprises, in order to keep high employment and maintain an image of “growth”. A lot of this money then found its way into the underground banking system through “wealth management products” and other means. A lot of this has turned into bad debt.
中国政府有过很多次债务融资,特别是08年美国次贷危机之后。为了稳住经济增长,中国政府通过银行将大量人民币注入到国企内以维持就业率和高增长的形象。但这些钱最终大都以理财产品和其他形式流进了地下钱庄。这些大部分都变成了不良贷款。
Another problem area, which frequently overlaps with the “wealth management products” is the local government financing vehicle used to fund local property development, which I have discussed here: Paul Denlinger's answer to Why does China have so many ghost towns?
另一个有问题的领域,和“理财产品”有莫大关联的,就是地方政府为当地基础建设所采用的金融工具(我在这个地方有详细的分析:https://www.quora.com/Why-does-China-have-so-many-ghost-towns/answePaul-Denlinger?srid=tR&share=22b99cfc
What is likely to happen in China is that growth will slow down in some areas, while there will be certain newer parts of the economy which will continue to grow. If the Chinese government is able to support the newer parts of the economy and help them to grow, while cutting back on loans to the weaker parts of the economy, it may be able to handle this transition better.
最可能发生的情况就是中国的经济增长将会放缓,但是肯定会用新的增站点。如果中国政府能支持新的增长点而且能减低夕阳工业的不良贷款率,那么或许能更好地度过过渡期。
This is exactly what the Chinese government is trying to do and you can read about it here:Here is how China is going to quietly save its economy
这些正是中国政府正在尝试去做的,你可以读读这个文章了解一下:http://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/article/2022491/china-deploys-policy-banks-stealth-mission-stimulate-growth
So, if you are expecting there to be a dramatic run on the banks, and the Chinese people to take to the streets and overthrow the Chinese Communist Party, and become a full-blown democracy like Taiwan, Japan or South Korea, you are very likely to be disappointed.
所以,如果你是期待一次强烈的bank run(自行百度啥是bank run),然后中国人民上街推翻TG,中国大陆变成与台湾,日本韩国一样的政体,那么你要失望了。
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Nikhil Ambhorkar, Self studied Finance.
Written Sep 26


Is China facing a Banking crisis?
中国是在面临一个银行危机吗?
Yes.

Is it facing a full blown Banking crisis?
中国正在面临一个全面性的银行危机吗?
No.

Combined debt of China is almost 300% of its GDP. But the the categorized in 4 parts as it is shown in the image with the question too.
中国的总债务大概是GDP的300%。但是分在了如图所示的4个领域内。
The corporate debt has the lion's portion of the total debt. The household debt and non corporate debt are nothing to worry about because it is less many other developed countries and has some room to grow.
公司债务在总债务中占了大头。个人债务和非公司债务根本没啥可担心的因为这些比大多数发达国家还要低所以还有增长的空间。
Government Debt is not too big when compared to standards set by many global institutions like IMF, World Bank, etc.
政府债务以多数国际组织,例如世行和IMF,设定得标准来看其实不高。
The only major concern which is of a serious magnitude is the corporate debt. This is also reiterated by many economists.
最主要的关注点就是公司债务了。许多经济学家都重申了这点无数次了。
Now the problem with China is that data that comes out of major Chinese institutions is murky so their are many different types of estimates by many different institutions but the common theme in it is corporate debt and its size.
中国最大的问题就是中国国内组织公布的数据来源不清晰所以不同的国际组织对中国经济的实际情况估算会不一样。但所有组织最关心的都是中国的公司债务与其规模。
Corporate debt consists of debt owned by state owned corporations and private corporations. Private corporations in China are generally crowded out by the state owned corporations because of connections and political agenda.
公司债务又分成了国企和私企的债务。中国私企大多数收到国企排挤,这是有政体造成的。
Many state owned corporations have invested into unproductive projects as a result of excess boost given by government after 2008 to prop up the economy. This has resulted in a huge amount of NPAs. So, in all the major problem is state owned corporations piling up huge amount of debt. To solve this problem, the government tried to convert the debt into shares which the bank owns and can recover money through profit dividends but this was one of the causes for last year's stock market crash.
在08年过度的经济刺激政策下,很多国企在许多无效益项目上投了许多钱。这造成了大量的无效能资产。所以,最大的问题是国企堆积了大量债务。为了解决这个问题,政府正在尝试将国企的债务转化为股份,那么银行就能将债务转化为红利而最终将债务收回了。但这造成了上年的股灾.....
Hence, it is a big crisis but not the one government cannot handle with so much trade surplus and forex reserves. But actions are definitely needed to stop it from growing into a bigger problem.
所以,这是一个危机但仍然是政府能控制的,毕竟中国政府有大量贸易顺差和外汇储备。但是仍然需要实际行动来防止事态的扩展。
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